Journal of Southeast Asian Economies Vol. 42/1 (April 2025)

Contents

• Journal of Southeast Asian Economies Vol. 42/1 (April 2025)
  [Whole Publication, ISSN: 23395200]
• Preliminary pages

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• ARTICLES
• 1. The Cost of Myanmar’s Coup d’état and Ongoing Civil War, by Richard Takhun, author see abstract

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  The cost of Myanmar’s civil war has yet to be analysed and discussed thoroughly in academic literature. There is no sign of a resolution to Myanmar’s 1 February 2021 military coup d’état, which is currently devolving into a full-scale civil war. Consequently, the country has become a hotbed of absurdity, conflict, and extreme economic hardship. This article attempts to examine the economic cost of Myanmar’s civil war from 2021 until mid-2023, employing the analytical framework for assessing the American Civil War. This study shows that civil wars, such as the one in Myanmar, have a longer-lasting impact than interstate conflicts. The opportunity costs and long-term economic effects of war have been grossly underestimated in certain studies. The main argument of this article is that the civilian population, rather than combatants or military personnel, bears the brunt of the devastating effects of such a civil war. Moreover, many of these ramifications may continue to have an impact after hostilities have ended.
• 2. Implementing TVET Reform in Vietnam: Insights from the SOE Reform Process, by Ari Kokko, Tam Thanh Nguyen, authors see abstract
  Vietnam needs to raise labour productivity and upgrade its position in global value chains to sustain its successful economic growth. Vietnamese authorities have therefore introduced various reforms to strengthen university education and technical and vocational education (TVET). However, many of the reforms have not been implemented as intended (or at all) and skilled labour is therefore a scarce resource in the country. This article asks why reform implementation has been slow and how it could be accelerated. After summarizing some of the reform requirements and the government’s responses, we provide a selective summary of the literature on policy implementation and argue that Vietnam’s problems are related to the commanding body system. All public education institutes have a designated “owner” within the state with some control over strategic decisions. These “owners” are often unwilling to give up their privileged positions and have the power to block attempts by schools and universities to become more autonomous. To explore possible ways forward, we examine experiences from Vietnam’s state-owned enterprise reforms which have been slow for similar reasons: vested interests have been able to block or delay many of the intended reforms. We conclude by outlining what is needed to reduce the power of commanding bodies and to move ahead with the necessary reforms of the TVET sector.
• 3. Is It Difficult to Get Out of the Coal Business? Narrative from Coal Mining Companies in Indonesia, by Maxensius Tri Sambodo, Akihisa Mori, Mesnan Silalahi, authors see abstract
  The response of incumbent coal miners to the global coal phase-out significantly influences the trajectory and pace of the energy transition. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in countries with high coal dependency where coal is deeply ingrained in societal structures, resulting in lock-ins and vested interests. This study examines the adaptation strategies of five major Indonesian coal mining business groups, characterized by robust upstream and downstream linkages. Through a co-occurrence and content analysis of prominent online newspapers and a documented survey of companies’ annual reports, this research investigates their adaptation strategies. The findings reveal that all companies engage in coal business divestment, partial shifting to electric vehicle business, diversification into high-value products, and the implementation of best mining practices, albeit to varying degrees. The underlying factors influencing these strategies include the scale of the company, corporate image, affiliation with the current government and prevailing government policies on coal production.
• 4. The Relationship between Air Freight and International Trade: Differences between Singapore and Vietnam, by Quang Hai Nguyen , It Van Nguyen , authors see abstract
  This study examines the relationship between air freight and international trade in two different economies: Singapore, a developed country, and Vietnam, a developing country. Using monthly data from 1999 to 2022, the study examines the Granger causality test between time series and estimates their interaction using the SARIMAX/(E)GARCH model. The study results confirm a bidirectional causality relationship between air freight and international trade in both countries. International trade is a key explanatory variable for air freight demand, and air freight also promotes international trade. However, their roles are quite different and vary depending on whether they are dependent or explanatory variables as well as the level of development of the economies discussed. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, air freight has been significantly negatively affected, but it appears to have had a negligible effect on international trade. The specific estimated coefficients from the SARIMAX/(E)GARCH model form the basis for forecasting air freight demand and international trade in the two study countries.
• 5. Labour-Use Efficiency in ASEAN Countries, by Le Bao Ngoc Nguyen, Poomthan Rangkakulnuwat, Ahmad Shabir Faizi, authors see abstract
  This paper investigates labour-use efficiency across the six largest Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies—Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines—from 1990 to 2018. The study employs a flexible translog functional form to specify labour demand, defined as a function of output, average wage, capital stock, country-specific variables and time effects. We generalize the model by incorporating a variance function which accommodates marginal effects. The parameters of the demand and variance functions are estimated through a multi-step procedure using generalized least squares and a nonlinear method, respectively. The empirical results show that the average labour-use efficiency among ASEAN countries is about 96.2 per cent, implying that the six ASEAN countries are very efficient in labour use relative to the country with the best labour-use practice in our sample, Singapore. In comparison with Singapore (100 per cent efficient), the labour-use efficiency of Malaysia is 98.3, Vietnam is 96.6, the Philippines is 96.5, Thailand is 94.4, and Indonesia is 91.5 per cent. The two-sample t-test results show that the labour-use efficiency significantly differs between countries.
• BOOK REVIEWS
• BOOK REVIEW: Albert Winsemius and Singapore: Here It Is Going to Happen, by Euston Quah with Luke Nursultan Iuldashov and Zach Lee, by Cassey Lee, author

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• BOOK REVIEW: Business Groups and the Thailand Economy: Escaping the Middle-Income Trap, by Natenapha Wailerdsak, by Ruangrong Suwankarn, author

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• Thank You List

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